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From: JonH🍕
Interesting. Short term oil shock to subdue Putin. All the different oils spiked 2-3% last night into US close.. https://x.com/BurggrabenH/status/1943806774420677058 🚨 Rumors swirl that @POTUS may be preparing a massive move to end Putin’s war by tanking Russia’s oil revenues — maybe as soon as Monday. Could he do it? He’s the one person on Earth who might actually pull it off. 🧵Here’s how: 1. The idea? Crush Russia’s oil exports, which fund ~40% of the Kremlin’s budget. But there’s a twist: He hates high oil prices more than any president in history. If he goes through with this, it’s a game of chicken — between oil prices and economic war. 2. For context: Russia exports ~7 million barrels/day of oil & petroleum products (of which about 4.5mbpd crude of that India buys about 1.7mbpd and China about 2.2mbpd). That’s too much for even OPEC to replace if such sanctions deter Indian & Chinese refiners perfectly for a while. Of course, oil markets are never perfect. Instead, oil always finds a way. Sellers and buyers meet — sanctions or not. But that is ONLY true over time. In the short term, sanctions force all actors to reconsider their positions and thus absolutely create a supply shock to the market if introduced on a tight timeline. 3. Today, India and China buy some 70% of Russian crude, mostly at a discount. This isn’t a loophole — it’s by design. Western sanctions aim to limit Russia’s income while keeping prices manageable for the West. That is also why the West (US & Europe) introduced the sanctions gradually over 12-15 months in 2022. It gave everyone the time to rearrange themselves. But Trump’s approach may flip that script. He could introduce a tariff shock with immediate effect to which oil prices will react because — for the very least — the shorts are forced to cover their positions. 4. The proposed Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 targets countries helping fund Russia’s war by continuing to import Russian energy. It proposes a 500% tariff (!!) on imports by the United States from countries (like India & China) that buy Russian oil. 5. That’s a big stick. And Trump could wield it effectively — if he’s willing to stomach the oil price shock that might follow for a limited period. 6. The bill also includes an escape hatch, giving Trump max leverage to negotiate peace with the Kremlin: The president can issue a 180-day waiver to any country based on U.S. national security interests. A second waiver may be possible under certain conditions (per Hill reporting). This gives flexibility — and leverage. ⸻ Bottom line: If Trump backs this fully, it could mark the most aggressive energy sanctions in modern history. Big oil, geopolitics, tariffs, and a high-stakes showdown with Putin and oil markets — all in one. Watch Monday. 👀 Last edited 11:57 PM · Jul 11, 2025 · 31.7K Views Who can reply? Accounts @BurggrabenH follows or mentioned can reply Vandana Hari @VandanaHari_SG · 3h 500% tariffs on China and India for buying Russian oil - it’s a crazy idea. But if your info on the waiver “escape hatch” is correct, Trump might actually do it. It would fit his MO — put a gun to the opponent’s head, say it won’t be fired for a certain period, and now let’s Show more

Current Thread	Author	Time
Interesting. Short term oil shock to subdue Putin. All the different oils spiked ... [more]	JonH🍕	11:10:33

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