True only over the short term
Agricultural commodity prices over the last 5 years (roughly 2021mid-2026) rose sharply in 20212022, peaked amid the Ukraine war and other disruptions, then declined significantly through 20232025, with mixed trends into 2026. Prices remain elevated relative to pre-2020 levels in many cases but are well below 2022 highs. fao.org
Global Overview: FAO Food Price Index (FFPI)
The FAO Food Price Index (20142016 = 100) tracks a basket of internationally traded food commodities (cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat, and sugar).
Annual averages (approximate, based on FAO data):
2021: 125.7
2022: 144.5 (peak year monthly high near March 2022)
2023: 124.5
2024: 122.0
2025: 127.2
Mid-2026 (June): 130.3 (up slightly year-over-year but ~19% below the March 2022 peak) statista.com
Key sub-index trends (June 2026 levels vs. prior periods):
Cereals: ~110.2 (down from May 2026 modestly above year-earlier levels after sharp post-2022 declines). Wheat and maize prices fell on strong Black Sea and South American supplies.
Vegetable oils: ~192.0 (up strongly month-over-month and ~23% above year-ago palm and rapeseed supported by biofuel demand and tighter supplies).
Meat: ~131.0 (record high driven by poultry and some other categories).
Dairy: ~117.4 (down notably from mid-2025 levels).
Sugar: ~89.7 (down year-over-year on Brazilian production/export dynamics). fao.org
Prices surged in 2021early 2022 due to post-COVID recovery, strong demand, weather issues, high energy/fertilizer costs, and the Russia-Ukraine war (disrupting major grain and oilseed exporters). They then eased with improved harvests, trade adjustments (e.g., Black Sea corridors), and lower input costs, though volatility persists from weather (including El Niρo effects), geopolitics, and biofuel demand.
U.S. Farm Prices Received (Key Grains/Oilseeds)
USDA data on average prices received by farmers (USD per bushel marketing-year averages or monthly where noted) show a similar pattern of 20212022 peaks followed by declines. fsa.usda.gov
Approximate marketing-year average (MYA) prices:
Corn:
2020/21: ~$4.53
2021/22: ~$6.00
2022/23: ~$6.54
2023/24: ~$4.55
2024/25: ~$4.24
2025/26 (projected/recent): around $4.10$4.20 range June 2026 monthly farm price ~$4.28. ycharts.com
Soybeans:
2020/21: ~$10.80
2021/22: ~$13.30
2022/23: ~$14.20
2023/24: ~$12.40
2024/25: ~$10.00
Recent/202526 projections: around $10$11+.
Wheat (all wheat):
2020/21: ~$5.05
2021/22: ~$7.63
2022/23: ~$8.83
2023/24: ~$6.96
2024/25: ~$5.52
Recent/202526: around $5.00$5.50 range (varies by class e.g., hard red spring higher at times).
Monthly U.S. corn farm prices (examples): peaked above $7 in mid-2022, fell toward the low-$4s by late 2024/2025, and hovered near $4.10$4.50 in earlymid 2026. ycharts.com
Broader Context and Other Notes
IMF/other indices: Global agricultural raw material price indices (e.g., IMF, 2016=100) were around 117 as of mid-2026. macrotrends.net
Drivers of recent movements: Stronger supplies in key exporters (South America, Black Sea), lower energy prices easing input and biofuel pressures, currency effects, and demand shifts. Countervailing factors include weather risks, biofuel policies (supporting oils), and livestock demand.
Livestock and other commodities: Meat prices have been relatively firm or rising into 2026 dairy more mixed/softening sugar lower beverages (coffee/cocoa) experienced notable volatility and strength in parts of the period.
Data sources include FAO, USDA NASS (Agricultural Prices reports), World Bank Pink Sheets, and related market trackers. Prices are nominal (not inflation-adjusted) unless noted local/farmgate vs. international export prices can differ due to freight, quality, and policies.
For the most current or commodity-specific charts, check FAOs Food Price Index page, USDA Agricultural Prices reports, or World Bank Commodity Markets data. Trends can shift quickly with weather, trade, or geopolitical developments.
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